Vincente Luque vs Themba Gorimbo
- Sean Meehan
- Nov 20, 2024
- 2 min read
The bout between Vincente Luque and Themba Gorimbo at UFC 310 on 12/07/2024 in Las Vegas is the next step for Themba Gorimbo and his rise in the UFC. While both fighters are nearly the same age, Gorimbo is just starting his UFC career while Luque has been in the UFC since 2015.
Themba Gorimbo: Gorimbo is on a 4 fight win streak after loosing his UFC debut. Gorimbo is 33, nearly 34 years old and is pushing to make a run in the very competitive Welterweight division.
Vincente Luque: Luque is a UFC veteran with 15-6 record in 21 UFC fights. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, all to well established names (Belal, Neal, and Buckley) with two of those losses coming by KO. His lone win in his past 4 fights came against Dos Anjos (RDA) in a 5 round unanimous decision.
Fighting Styles:
This matchup pits Gorimbo with a heavy takedown and control style with a more aggressive Luque who likes to comes out strong and can fade as the fight progresses.
Themba Grorimbo: Gorimbo has 3 decision victories in 4 UFC wins, his only loss was by submission in his debut. He strongly favors control and only totaled 144 significant strikes in his 3 decision wins. His fourth win was a quick KO of Pete Rodriquez. In his three decision wins Gorimbo amassed over 30 minutes of control time during those three fights.
Vincente Luque: Luque is a well rounded striker who employs kicks and striking accuracy to win his fights. His takedown defense is solid but when taken down he has trouble getting back to his feet. In Luque's last win vs. RDA, he was able to secure 8 TDs and 12+ minutes of control time in 5 rounds. In his next fight, the loss to Buckley, he was 0-3 on takedowns.
The style matchup clearly favors Gorimbo as he should be able to take Luque down and amass a significant amount of control time. Luque will not be able to take Gorimbo down and will have to keep this on the feet to have a chance. I expect Gorimbo to follow a similar game plan that Belal used against Luque, focusing on takedowns and control time to secure the victory.
Fight Odds:
Gorimbo -250 (71.4% implied win probability)
Luque +175
Model Analysis:
Modelling favors Luque in this matchup as Luque experience is highly valued.
Betting Angles:
When odds post I will play Gorimbo by decision or -3.5 depending on where the value is at time of posting
If you like Luque and his veteran experience I would play Luque +3.5 vs. moneyline as he may be able to steal a round but seems unlikely to win this particular matchup.
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