Baergeng Jieleyisi vs. SuYoung You

One of three Road to UFC finals on the card, Baergeng vs. SuYoung You is a Bantamweight matchup between two 28-year-old fighters trying to break into the UFC in their prime.

Baergeng Jieleyisi: With a pro record of 18-5, Baergeng is an experienced 28-year-old reaching the "Road to UFC" finals in his second stint on "Road to UFC". Baergeng has 14 wins by finish, 10 of them by submission. He is on a four-fight win streak since losing in Season 2 of "Road to UFC" and has won 9 of his last 10 fights.

SuYoung You: With a pro record of 13-3, including 5 submission wins and 3 by KO, SuYoung reached the finals using a grappling-heavy approach. His first win featured a meager 11 significant strikes between the two fighters as SuYoung dominated control time. His second victory was a split-decision win in which SuYoung secured 8 TDs but only amassed 2:44 control time and landed 0 ground strikes.

Fighting Styles:

Baergeng Jieleyisi: Since his loss in season 2 of "Road to UFC," Baergeng has demonstrated a focus on ground control and takedowns. In his two "Road to UFC" wins, he amassed nearly 14 minutes of control time in 24 minutes, winning his first fight of Season 3 "Road to UFC" by submission. His striking volume is low, with only 31 ground strikes attempted during that 14 minutes of control.

SuYoung You: SuYoung is a grappler always looking for takedowns and has landed 13 of 19 attempts in his two "Road to UFC" fights. His ability to control was inconsistent in his two fights. In his first "Road to UFC" fight, he could control his first opponent for 10+ minutes of the 15-minute fight. Still, he struggled to control his second opponent, only establishing control for 2 minutes and 44 seconds despite 8 takedowns. SuYoung's striking accuracy is also a concern at 38% and SuYoung has not employed ground strikes when controlling his opponent.

Both fighters have leveraged grappling and control time to win during season 3 of "Road to UFC". SuYoung will need to successfully take Baergeng down and secure control time to win this matchup. Baergeng's 5-inch reach advantage and grappling experience provide a path to victory if he can stuff SuYoung's takedown attempts and land strikes at range.

Fight Odds:

• SuYoung You opened a -150 favorite and the odds remain at that level

• Baergeng Jieleyisi +124

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Model favors SuYoung You winning this fight by decision.

Betting Angles:

• Baergeng Jieleyisi: His reach advantage and grappling experience make him a live underdog. The +124 moneyline is a good way to play him but I will also look at the spread when those odds post.

• SuYoung, Your path to victory is through control and takedowns, pushing the value toward a decision.

  
  

Recommended Plays:

• Baergeng +3.5 -165 (1.65u)