Maheshate vs. Nikolas Motta

Fight Night in Macau will kick off with what is sure to be a pure-standing and striking affair between the lightweights, Maheshate and Motta. Both fighters are coming off a win in their last UFC fight, but both have had mixed results during their UFC careers. It is unlikely that this is a "loser leaves town" fight, but a loss for either could significantly impact each fighter's future in the UFC.

Fighting Styles:

Maheshate: Maheshate is a higher-volume striker with 5.8 attempts per minute who leverages a high frequency of kicks and jabs in his fights. While Mashable is a higher-volume fighter, he is a lower-accuracy striker with 28% striking accuracy. Maheshate also prefers keeping opponents at a distance where he can better leverage his jab and kicks.

Nikolas Motta: Motta is also a striker-oriented fighter who leverages a range of kicks and jabs to win his fights. Motta is also a solid counter-striker who is slightly more measured, with 4.8 strike attempts per minute.

The fight will occur solely on the feet, as Maheshate and Motta have 0 takedowns in their combined UFC fights. The fight will be decided by whether Maheshate can keep Motta at a distance and effectively use his kicks and jobs or if Motta can leverage his counter-striking ability vs. Maheshate high volume attacks.

Fight Odds:

• Maheshate opened as a -200 favorite and remains in that range

• Motta is a +160 underdog

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modeling strongly favors Maheshate to win this fight by either TKO or Decision

Betting Angles:

If betting the -200 ML for Maheshate is too much juice to lay, Maheshate by TKO at +150 is the way to go. Motta has 2 KO losses in the UFC, and Maheshate's volume could overwhelm Motta. However, I'm not sure there is a ton of value in that play, and decision at +290 is more attractive.

Motta has a puncher's chance in this one and may be able to steal a round or two even if he can't consistently counter Maheshate's volume. If you like Motta here, playing him at +3.5 is likely the best angle when those markets become available.

Recommended Plays:

• Maheshate ML -192 (1.92u)

• Maheshate Decision +290 (0.5u)