Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs. Carlos Hernandez

This prelim fight features two flyweights trying to keep their UFC hopes alive. Tumendemberel won two non-tournament fights on season 2 of the "Road to UFC," while Hernandez, 3-3 in 6 UFC fights, is on a two-fight losing streak and would likely be out of the UFC with a third loss.

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: Tumendemberel is 8-0, with 5 submission wins and 2 victories by KO. At 26, a victory against Hernandez would position him as an up-and-coming prospect in the flyweight division.

Carlos Hernandez: Hernandez, a DWCs alum, has struggled with UFC-level competition, losing three of his last four fights. His only victory came against Denys Bondar, who lost his three UFC fights. Hernandez has faced very difficult competition in his previous two fights, fighting Tatsuro Taira, a top prospect likely to fight for the belt one day, and Rei Tsuruya, 4-0 in the UFC.

Fighting Styles:

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: Tumendemberel is a grappler with a 71" reach who consistently looks for submission opportunities. In his two "Road to UFC" bouts, he made three submission attempts in his first fight and submitted his opponent on his first official submission attempt in his second fight. Tumendemberel also has solid striking and secured a knockdown in his first "Road to UFC" fight, which was critical to his split decision win.

Carlos Hernandez: Hernandez is a high-volume striker when given the opportunity. In his 3 wins, he landed an average of nearly 30 strikes a round. His solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet when taken down are crucial to his success.

If Hernandez keeps this on the feet, he should be able to win the fight with his superior striking. If Tumendemberel is able to take Hernandez down and control him, Tumendemberel will secure the victory either by decision or submission.

Fight Odds:

• Hernandez opened as the +102 underdog and has since been bet down to the -185 to -200 range

• Tumendemberel opened as the -127 favorite and is now a +148 to +163 underdog

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modeling strongly favors Tumendemberel to win by submission in this matchup due to his superior grappling, submission ability, and undefeated record.

Betting Angles:

If you like Hernandez, the value is on him to win by a decision of +135, as his ML is over-bet and doesn't provide any value.

Tumendemberel is my play here, but with Hernandez's strong takedown defense, ability to get back to his feet, and solid striking, I think this is going to be a close fight, putting the opportunity to bet Tumendemberel +3.5. Tumendemberel also has the potential to catch Hernandez in a submission, providing high value on that prop.

Recommended Plays:

• Tumendemberel +3.5 (TBD)

• Tumendemberel by submission +550 (0.5u)