Kiru Sahota vs. DongHun Choi

The Flyweight final of "Road to UFC" matches a 25-year-old undefeated striker, DonHun Choi, vs. a 29-year-old balanced fighter in Kiru Sahota.

Kiru Sahota: 12-2 in his professional career, Sahota won his first two "Road to UFC" fights by decision, including a split decision win over grappler Yin Shuai. Sahota is a tall flyweight at 5'100" with a 73" reach. He has 6 wins by KO and 2 by submission, with his two submission wins coming early in his first two pro-MMA fights back in 2018.

DongHun Choi: Choiis a precision southpaw striker who won both his "Road to UFC" fights by split decision. He has three wins by KO and five by decision. Choi is a more typical Flyweight at 5'6" and a reach of 66".

Fighting Styles:

Kiru Sahota: Sahota's height and reach are a material advantage at this weight class, allowing him to keep his distance when desired and providing advantages in grappling and clench work. Sahota has not had a submission win since his first two pro fights and did not actively deploy takedowns in his first two "Road to UFC" fights. In his first fight, he was taken down 9 times, suggesting that his grappling may not translate as he moves up in quality of competition.

DongHun Choi: Choi is a precise striker who starts slower and picks up volume as the fight progresses. In his two "Road to UFC" fights, he threw more than 50 strikes in the third round and only 20 to 25 strikes in the first rounds. Choi can put heavy pressure on a fighter throughout a fight, wearing down opponents.

Sahota versus Choi is an interesting matchup that will depend on who can implement their fighting style. If Sahota can use his range and grappling skills, he can control the fight early and get the decision win. If Choi can get inside of Sahota's range and keep up the pressure, he will wear Sahota down.

Fight Odds:

• Choi opened as a -150 favorite and is now in the -105 to -117 range

• Sahota opened as a +120 underdog and is now in the -107 to -115 range

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Model favors Choi winning by decision despite the height and reach advantage of Sahota.

Betting Angles:

The odds are a coin flip between these two fighters, with the fight to go the distance heavily juiced. When available, I will look at the odds for this fight ending in a split decision in addition to Choi ML

Recommended Plays:

• Choi ML -105 (1.05u)

• Split Decision +320 (0.5u)