Kenan Song vs. Muslim Salikhov

The fight between Song and Salikhov focuses on two strikers who are both coming off a win but are 2-3 in their last 5 fights.

Fighting Styles:

Kenan Song: Kenan Song is a relatively patient fighter who looks to find his opportunities to land strikes. He prefers counterstriking over being the aggressor and will use leg kicks to maintain distance. He has a tendency to take damage in fights looking for opportunities which can wear on him as the fight progresses.

Muslim Salikhov: Salikhov is a versatile fighter who leverages leg kicks and distance management to wear down opponents. He is a strong counter-puncher with a range of spinning attacks and power punches.

Two strikers who both prefer counterstriking and distance control this fight will come down to volume and accuracy. A finish seems unlikely as in their last 10 combined fights only Salikhov has a finish win, vs. Fialho (who lost his last 4 by KO).

Fight Odds:

• Salikhov opened as a -157 (61% implied win probability) favorite and is now a -180 to -196 favorite

  • Decision: +175 to +195

  • TKO: +200 to +225

• Kenan Song +140 to +155

  • Decision: +295 to +300

  • TKO: +550 to +575

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modelling has Salikhov as the likely winner, with TKO and Decision both as equally likely outcomes.

Betting Angles:

This one seems relatively straight forward playing Salikhov ML as he should control the fight and a KO is in play but far from a play based on the odds. If the juice on Salikhov is too much you can play Salikhov decision as I think that has more value than TKO/KO.

If you are interested in playing Song I would take Song +3.5 on DK at -135, this brings in the 29-28 decision loss in addition to a Song win.

Recommended Plays:

• Salikhov ML -185 (1.85u)

• Salikhov Dec +175 (0.5u)