Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo is the first UFC Main event in Macau since The Ultimate Fighter China Finale in March 2014. The fight is scheduled for five rounds at 8:45 a.m. Eastern, 9:45 p.m. Macau.

Petr Yan is coming off a unanimous decision win vs. Song Yadong in March after three consecutive losses where he closed as a prohibitive favorite at -286 vs. Dvalishvili, as low as -435 vs. O'Malley, and -480 vs. Sterling. The losses to O'Malley and Sterling were very close and could have gone his way with different judges. He was overwhelmed by Dvalishvilli's style with a unanimous 50-45 decision loss.

Figueiredo is on a three-fight win streak since moving up to Bantamweight and has looked strong in those fights, including a clear decision win over Rob Font, a submission of Cody Garbrandt, and a decision win against Marlon "Chito" Vera.

Fighting Styles:

Yan and Figueiredo have conflicting styles that make this a fight of the night candidate.

Petr Yan: Yan is a patient fighter with a high fighter IQ who tends to start slow and pick up as he adapts to his opponent's style. He can pick his opponents apart and wear his opponents down over time. His style can serve him well against other strikers and in longer fights. His style has also cost him as he frequently falls behind on scorecards and has to come from behind to win decisions. His lack of finishing ability, with 0 finishes in his last 6 fights and his previous finish coming in 2020 vs. Jose Aldo, also makes him susceptible to losing close decisions.

Deiveson Figueiredo: Figueiredo prefers to go for takedowns early in fights, averaging 1-2 TDs in round 1. He is aggressive early and has faded late in prior fights, with his control time dropping from 1-4 minutes in round 1 to an average of less than 1 minute in rounds 3 and later.

Summary: The contrast of styles makes for an intriguing fight that should be entertaining. Figueiredo's aggression should get him some early-round points, leaving Yan to come from behind in rounds 3, 4, and 5. Figueiredo's cardio will be a critical factor in the fight, and the fight could come down to who wins round 3, as we could see rounds 1-2 go to Figueiredo and 4-5 to Yan.

Fight Odds:

• Yan opened as a -260 favorite (implied win probability of 72.2%) and is now -333 to -295 (implied win probability of up to 76.9%)

  • Decision +120 to +130

  • TKO +200 to +220

  • Submission +2000 to +2200

• Figueiredo is a +225 to +250 underdog

  • Decision +450 to +500

  • TKO +600 to +800

  • Submission +900 to +1200

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modeling favors Petr Yan slightly but puts this fight more as a toss-up and suggests the outcome is not as definitive as the odds would indicate. Modelling also suggests the most likely outcome is a Yan decision, followed by a Figueiredo decision.

Betting Angles:

If you want to play Yan ML, it would be best to see how rounds 1 and 2 go and live bet Yan after round 2, as the current odds are too low to play prior to the fight. There is a high likelihood that Figueiredo will win the first and second rounds, providing an opportunity to live bet Yan at much better odds.

If you are looking for something pre-fight on Yan, Yan by decision at plus money is the best approach; it is unlikely Yan can finish someone as durable as Figueiredo. I would also get that bet in sooner, as those odds are likely to drop as we get closer to the fight.

If you want to play Figueiredo, the moneyline is the best play, but there is value on Figueiredo by decision at +450 to +500.

Recommended Plays:

• Yan by Decision at +130 (1 unit)