Volkan Oezdemir vs. Carlos Ulberg

Carlos Ulberg, #10 ranked light heavyweight takes on #8 ranked UFC veteran Volkan Oezdemir.

Volkan Oezdemir: A veteran of the UFC, Oezdemir has fought a range of top Light Heavyweights throughout his career with mixed results. Oezdemir's wins are heavily skewed against mid-level fighters such as Paul Craig, Guskov, and Walker, with losses to Kyrlov, Ankalaev, Jiri Prchazka, Anthony Smith, and Daniel Cormier. The best wins on his resume are a split decision win over Rakic in December of 2019 and his most recent KO of Johnny Walker. Oezdemir has taken on more of a gatekeeper role in the UFC Light Heavyweight division, and his fight against Ulberg is a testament to that.

Carlos Ulberg: Despite being only one year younger, Ulberg joined the UFC in 2020 and is 7-1 and on a six-fight win streak, with 5 straight finishes (4 by TKO, 1 submission). Ulberg has yet to face any top Light Heavyweight competition and dominated the competition to date. Ulberg has finished 4 of his last 5 fights in the first round and only needed 49 strikes in those 4 fights combined. Ulberg is taking a steady but effective path up the rankings and, with a victory against Oezdemir, will be set up to face a top 5 light heavyweight next.

Fighting Styles:

Volkan Oezdemir: Oezdemir is an experienced power striker who can put people out with one power shot. Oezdemir will look to close distance and land power shots. Oezdemir will stand and exchange strikes in fights with fellow strikers.

Carlos Ulberg: Ulberg is a high-volume precision striker with the second-highest significant strike accuracy in UFC Light Heavyweight history, only behind Alex Periera. Ulberg is also the all-time leader among light Heavyweights for strikes landed per minute and striking differential. Ulberg has a submission win to his name, submitting Da Woon Jung by rear naked choke, but has not had much need for grappling in his 7 other UFC fights.

On the surface, this seems like a very difficult matchup for Oezdemir as Ulberg's precision striking should pick Oezdemir apart. If Oezdemir crashes in on Ulberg, I would expect Ulberg to finish the fight quickly and set himself up for a top 5 matchup in 2025. Oezdemir's path to victory relies on landing a power shot early that stuns or finishes Ulberg, otherwise it could be a very difficult fight for Oezdemir.

Fight Odds:

• Ulberg opened as a -265 favorite and remains in that range

  • Spread: -3.5 @ -150

  • KO/TKO: +130

  • Decision: +240

• Oezdemir +205

  • KO/TKO: +500

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modelling strongly favors Ulberg with TKO as the most likely outcome.

Betting Angles:

Oezdemir by KO seems like the only play for him, as I don't see a compelling path to victory by decision

Ulberg by TKO is clearly the obvious play for him, but -3.5 is another angle to pursue if Ulberg stays conservative and keeps his distance.

Recommended Plays:

• Ulberg by TKO +130 (1.0u)