Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabatha Ricci

Yan Xiaonan vs. Tabathi Ricci presents an opportunity for Tabatha "Baby Shark" Ricci to position herself for a title fight against Zhang Weili.

Yan Xiaonan is 7 months removed from a title fight against Zhang Weili where she suffered a convincing decision loss. Xiaonan earned that title fight opportunity with a surprising TKO finish of Jessica Andrade at UFC 225, where Xiaonan was the underdog.

Tabatha Ricci holds a solid 11-2 record, 6-2 in the UFC, with losses to Manon Fiorot in a higher weight class and a split decision loss to Loopy Godinez in a pure striking affair.

Fighting Styles:

Xiaonan and Ricci is an intriguing matchup where the outcome depends on whether Ricci can close the distance and impose her grappling or if Xiaonan can keep the fight standing to outstrike her opponent

Yan Xiaonon: A high-volume striker with solid takedown defense, she can overwhelm her opponents with volume and has 5 UFC wins where she landed 90+ significant strikes. Xiaonon has a solid TD defense at 62% but is susceptible to being controlled when taken down.

Tabbatha Ricci: Ricci has adapted her style to her opponent and secured wins with a solid mix of striking and takedowns. Ricci does not have the highest takedown accuracy at 38%; she does average nearly 7 takedown attempts per fight. Her prior win vs. Angela Hill showed she is willing to stand and strike, attempting 219 distance strikes with a 42% accuracy. However, her striking accuracy is low at 38%

Summary: Xiaonon should be able to keep this one on the feet and out-strike Ricci. Ricci has to get this to the ground and use control time to grind out a victory as she is outclassed in the striking.

Fight Odds:

• Xiaonan is a -210 favorite (implied win probability of 67.7%), only sightly higher than the opening odds of -215

  • Decision: -120

  • TKO:  +450

• Ricci is a +150 to +175 underdog

  • Decision: +225 to +285

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3549

Model Analysis:

Modeling slightly favors Xianon as her experience and striking are superior to Ricci's, but accounts for the potential that Ricci can win this through takedowns and control. The modelling strongly leans towards a Xiaonan decision.

Betting Angles:

This is a classic "decision" fight with limited value on the favorite. If you think Ricci can impose successfully land takedowns in at least 2 of the 3 rounds, Ricci by decision should have nice value when the odds open. When the prop markets open up closer to the fight there may be an opportunity to play Ricci over TDs, Ricci over Significant Strike, and Xiaonon over significant strikes

Recommended Plays:

• Xiaonan Decision -120 (1.2u)